Despite fertility declines in most countries and reduced life expectancy due to the HIV/AIDS epidemic in some African nations, the global population reached 6.5 billion people by the end of 2005 and should hit seven billion by 2012, according to a report released by the Population Reference Bureau (PRB).
Meanwhile, fertility in some of the world's poorest countries -- almost all of them in Africa -- has remained virtually unchanged over the past 25 years. Niger, where famine caused by drought and last year's locust infestation now threatens some three million people with starvation, has the highest fertility rate at an average of eight lifetime births per woman; followed by Mali, another drought-stricken nation, and Guinea-Bissau, at 7.1 births per woman; Somalia, 7.0; Uganda, 6.9, and Afghanistan, Angola, Burundi, and Liberia, all at 6.8 births per woman.
By contrast, the lowest fertility rates -- far below the 2.1 children per woman considered to be "replacement level" in developed countries -- are now found in Central and Eastern Europe and East Asia.
The new Data Sheet, which includes the latest statistics on a range of health, income, and population indices, in addition to fertility, for 207 countries and territories, estimates the global population as of mid-2005 at 6.477 billion, of which 5.266 billion people live in developing countries.
By 2050, however, China, whose tough population policies have helped reduce its fertility rate to Western European levels, will have been overtaken by India. India will have 1.628 billion people by that date, while China is expected to have 1.437 billion, according to the report.
The United States is also expected to hold its place as the third most-populous country with 420 million people, compared with its current 296 million, while Indonesia, the fourth largest country today with 222 million people, will also hold its position with 308 million 45 years from now.
The standings of the next six-largest countries, however, are expected to change, as Pakistan, which currently ranks number six with 162 million people, is expected to nearly double its population and overtake Brazil (currently 184 million) as number five.
Nigeria, which currently ranks ninth with 132 million people, is also expected to nearly double its population over that period, moving it into seventh place right behind Brazil and displacing Bangladesh, whose population is expected to grow from 144 million to 231 million.
Other countries that are expected to have populations greater than 100 million in 2050 include the Philippines (142 million) Mexico (139 million); Uganda (131 million); Egypt (126 million); Vietnam (115 million); and Turkey (101 million).
Sub-Saharan Africa's population will increase the most -- from 752 million people today to 1.729 billion by 2050 -- or 130 percent. Sub-regionally, Central Africa is expected to experience the fastest growth (increasing by 175 percent), while southern Africa's population will remain stagnant over the period due in major part to HIV/AIDS pandemic which has reduced life expectancy in several southern African countries to less than 40 years -- the world's lowest.
[From article by Jim Lobe, Inter Press Service News Agency]
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